live from Baghdad

Well, you may have heard about Francis Fukuyama's new book about how his own neo-conservative movement has overreached in Iraq.

America at the Crossroads
This book has been part of a laudable, if tardy, round of soul-searching on the part of neo-cons due to the lack of progress in Iraq. Andrew Sullivan poured out some of his feelings on the Iraq War in the latest issue of TIME.

In retrospect, neoconservatives (and I fully include myself) made three huge errors. The first was to overestimate the competence of government, especially in very tricky areas like WMD intelligence. The shock of 9/11 provoked an overestimation of the risks we faced. And our fear forced errors into a deeply fallible system. When doubts were raised, they were far too swiftly dismissed...
Fukuyama's sharpest insight here is how the miraculously peaceful end of the cold war lulled many of us into overconfidence about the inevitability of democratic change, and its ease. We got cocky. We should have known better. The second error was narcissism. America's power blinded many of us to the resentments that hegemony always provokes...
The final error was not taking culture seriously enough. There is a large discrepancy between neoconservatism's skepticism of government's ability to change culture at home and its naiveté when it comes to complex, tribal, sectarian cultures abroad.

Of course, as I was reading this, I was torn between the easy, "I told you so," and the feeling of, "Well, thank you for finally coming around to reality."

However, I feel like, for sake of clarity, I ought to look back at some of the things I wrote for my own benefit after 9/11, and see if there were any mistakes I could confess. Of course, directly after the terrorist attacks, I made a snap judgement that all political violence was wrong, whether state-sponsored or acts of terrorism. This led me to write the following things, which I now read with some regret...

The acts of the Taliban of Afghanistan are widely known, reported and understood. Those in the Islamic world know them to be consistent with an extreme, but in their eyes, just form of Sharia law. Although, in our eyes, the Taliban is totally illegitimate, in the eyes of its citizens, and more importantly, in the eyes of the citizens of its neighboring countries, it is justified. Osama bin Laden is a popular hero of the region, on the level of Sam Adams, John Brown, George Armstrong Custer, or Douglas MacArthur in the eyes of the average citizen in the Middle East. The demands to hand him over are met with derision or the anger that our own congress demonstrated towards an international war crimes tribunal, from which they have excepted all American soldiers.

In fact, the initial success of the Afghan War and arguments had in the run-up to the Iraq War turned my view from one of pacifism to that of a just warrior. Almost exactly three years ago today, during the first week of the Iraq War, I wrote the following. It was a long essay which I intended as a response to a colleague. I never showed it to anyone but my wife. As I read through it today, the only thing I would really want to recant is the poor wording and grammar. However, I said this gem three years ago, and I'll stick by this today.

The point is invading a country and toppling a regime may be something our armed forces can do with ease. However, even in the name of democracy, these things don’t always turn out the way we want them to.

I wouldn't have mentioned any of this if I hadn't watched a truly transformative documentary. I would recommend that each and every one of you rent it as soon as you read this and watch it.

Gunner Palace
This was not a, "Don't we live in such a cruel, cruel world," movie. This movie was raw. It was real, and I think I have a small inkling of the thoughts and feelings of the soldiers in Iraq.

Everything having been said and done, I will offer up one more comment which I wrote in March 2003 and by which I still stand.

The idea that we will succeed in 2003 in building a stable democracy in Iraq that will last for more than a few decades is a nice thought and I pray for its success. If history shows us any patterns, though, it is quite likely to be a failure. At the same time, those who may have seen the United States as what it is—a beacon of democracy, freedom, and hope—may come to see it for what it should not be—an arrogant, overreaching superpower, which wants to impose its way of life on others.

I still believe that Iraq can become a functioning state, if our leaders don't keep fouling it up. I also believe that a Christian who is truly seeking the kingdom of heaven will pray for a stable and peaceful Iraq. Of course, only time will tell if the "Arab spring" has an early frost.